Analytics

Based on Elliott Wave Principle

Dated: 16th January 2021

Macros – US Dollar Index #DXY & US 10 Year Yield #US10Y

With US Dollar Index #DXY seems to be bottoming and US 10 Year Yield #US10Y seems to be topping, the Macros appear to be in place to disrupt the Equities. However, I must make certain things very clear. One, the Inter Market Movement is not exactly point-to-point. That is, if DXY & US10Y turn on a particular day, it doesn’t mean that Equities also turn on the same day itself. The past experience shows that there can be a lag or sometimes a substantial lag of up to 1-2 Months. In 2020 only, US10Y topped out on 31st December 2019, where as Equities made the turn only after 20th Feb 2020. Secondly, there can be a further lag between the US Equities and the Emerging Market or India in particular. Case in point: 2007, when Dow Jones topped out in October 2007, whereas India peaked only in January 2008. So, we can’t have any automatic presumption regarding Equities right away. However, we can say that topping process would be deemed as begun if and when we have both DXY and US10Y confirming the termination of their waves by breaking the dashed lines on charts. Lastly, the magnitude of any correction would depend on the structure of that Index itself. Just because a 2007-08 or 2020 has been quoted as examples doesn’t automatically construe the expectation of extent of turn.


Dated: 19th December 2020

NIFTY – Long Term Chart

Wave 5 (Cycle Degree) Target Zone of 25000-34000 by 2024-2027.

Reassessment on a breach below Blue Trendline. A breach is not a necessary invalidation. Depends on internals. The dashed path is for representative purpose only.


Dated: 29th July 2020

COPPER (COMEX) | Symbol: HG1! @ 2.9060

Copper is entering its Third Wave (Wave C) of a larger Zig Zag, that can take it to 6.3865-8.7900 over a period of next 3-5 Years. The view would need a re-assessment on a break below 0-B Blue Trendline. Invalidation below B’s Low of 1.9725.


Dated: 12th July 2020

MRF @ 64,867

The stock is in a larger Impulse Wave Structure from 2001 lows of 360, with currently being in Wave 4 and Wave 5 yet to happen. This is an anticipated scenario on price and time, and modifications for Wave 5 Target will be needed after the actual price / time bottom of Wave 4.


Dated: 07th June 2020

AUROBINDO PHARMA @ 744

The stock is in Wave 5 of a larger Wave 3. It already has had a good run from the lows of 281 in March recently. While one can expect a cool-off for a bit, the eventual target for this rise would be 1400. Invalidation below the 2-4 Blue Trendline.


Dated: 24th May 2020

NSE PHARMA INDEX @ 9600

Short Term Outlook


Dated: 04th May 2020

USDINR @ 75.07

An Elliott Wave perspective


Dated: 23rd January 2020

USDINR @ 71.23

Status: Completed

Presumably in its Wave C, can head up to 73.20-73.90 zone.
Doubts on New High.
Invalidation below Contracting Triangle’s Wave C Low. Red Trendline can be used for Trailing.

For how it moved after this chart was posted, check this link: https://in.tradingview.com/chart/USDINR/SDQXM69p-USDINR-A-retracement-back-to-73-20-73-90-zone/


Dated: 21st December 2019

POWER GRID CORPORATION @ 186

Status: Open

Dated: 13th November 2019

NSE FMCG INDEX @ 31,700 – Corrective Mode

Status: Completed.

FMCG Index seems to be getting into a Corrective and the Lower High has added credence to the possibility. The structure suggests a correction of ~15% to 26000 odd level. Time-wise: it should complete sometime in the first quarter of 2020. Invalidation above recent high of 32,645.


Dated: 12th November 2019

BSE Healthcare Index @ 13,126 – An Elliott Wave perspective

Status: Open

Starting point, as per BSE Data is ~1172 in 2003, which was missing from this website, hence that has been marked.

The BSE Healthcare Index (can be equated with NSE Pharma Index) is currently undergoing a Wave 4 corrective from its peak of 18,840 in August 2015.

While the Wave 4 is yet to get over, it’s expected to not break below 11,600-10,000 zone. Invalidation on a break below 8600.

Price projections for Wave 5 are conservative and in the range of 27,000-33,000, which means surpassing this zone is not ruled out. Time projections are more in the approximation side and begin 2024 onwards, but largely can be kept in the bracket of 2024-2027.


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